Will Vladan Đokić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Current price
2¢
+0.35¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2%
$41.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define the standard required for an individual to qualify as the next Prime Minister: they must be elected by the National Assembly and formally sworn in as part of a newly formed government. Caretaker or interim appointments that bypass parliamentary election are explicitly excluded. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting with official Serbian government announcements as a fallback in case of ambiguity. There are no unusual timing triggers or obscure exception clauses that would contradict the straightforward reading of the question.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Vladan Đokić will become the next Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028. To qualify, the individual must be formally elected by the National Assembly rather than serving purely in an interim or caretaker capacity.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Vladan Đokić officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, requiring both election by the National Assembly and formal swearing-in that forms a new government. Interim or caretaker prime ministers not elected by the National Assembly do not count. The market resolves No if another individual meets these conditions first. The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely based on official Serbian government information if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for the next Prime Minister of Serbia to officially assume office.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the Serbian government as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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