Will Dragan Đilas be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Last captured price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$24.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the conditions required for an individual to qualify as the next Prime Minister, explicitly requiring both election by the National Assembly and a formal swearing-in ceremony that establishes a new government. Non-elected interim or caretaker appointments are explicitly excluded from triggering resolution. The market relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with a defined fallback to official Serbian government announcements if ambiguity arises. The June 30, 2028 deadline provides a clear operational window.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dragan Đilas will become the next Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028. To qualify, the candidate must be elected by the National Assembly and formally sworn in as part of a newly formed government.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Dragan Đilas is elected by the National Assembly and formally sworn in as the next Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, officially forming a new government. Interim or caretaker prime ministers not elected by the National Assembly do not count. The market resolves to No if another individual officially assumes the office through this process first. The market resolves to "Other" if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official Serbian government information if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Latest time for a qualifying Prime Minister to take office before the market resolves to "Other"
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the Serbian government resolving any ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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