Will Stefan Krkobabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Current price
0.65¢
+0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.65%
$27.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes taking office, requiring election by the National Assembly and a formal swearing-in that establishes a new government. It explicitly excludes non-elected interim or caretaker leaders. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, but provides a concrete fallback to official Serbian government releases if any ambiguity arises. The deadline is specific, and the criteria for resolution align directly with standard constitutional procedures.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Stefan Krkobabić will become the next Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028. Resolution requires election by the National Assembly and a formal swearing-in, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker appointees who lack parliamentary election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Stefan Krkobabić officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, requiring election by the National Assembly and a formal swearing-in that establishes a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister not elected by the National Assembly does not count. The market resolves No if another individual meets these criteria first. The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official Serbian government information if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The deadline by which the qualifying Prime Minister must assume office.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or official information from the Serbian government in case of ambiguity
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