Will Thomas Massie be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
Last captured price
5.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.15%
$1.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the first individual to formally receive and accept the Republican Party's vice-presidential nomination for the 2028 cycle. The outcome relies on official party channels, including the official GOP website. An explicit clause clarifies that any subsequent nominee replacement prior to election day will not alter the initial resolution outcome, leaving little room for misinterpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Thomas Massie will be the first person to formally accept the Republican Party's nomination for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 election cycle.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Thomas Massie is the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if another individual is the first to be formally nominated and accepts the nomination. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not change the resolution. The outcome is determined by a consensus of official GOP sources, including the official GOP website.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official GOP sources, including the official GOP website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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