Will Donald Trump be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
Last captured price
3.45¢
−0.35¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.45%
$2.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution conditions are clearly defined, resolving based on the first individual who is formally nominated for Vice President by the Republican Party and accepts the nomination for the 2028 cycle. Resolution relies on official Republican Party sources, specifically including the official GOP website, leaving minimal room for decider discretion. The rules also explicitly clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee will not alter the market outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump will be formally nominated as the Republican Party's candidate for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Donald Trump is the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if another individual becomes the first to be formally nominated and accept the nomination. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the market's resolution. A consensus of official Republican Party sources determines the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official GOP sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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