Will Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
Current price
29.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 29.5%
$12.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the first individual to be formally nominated for Vice President by the Republican Party in the 2028 cycle who accepts the nomination. Official party sources, including the primary GOP website, serve as the basis for verification, leaving very little room for interpretation regarding who receives the formal nomination. Position holders should simply note the explicit rule stating that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not alter how the market resolves once the initial nominee accepts.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Marco Rubio is formally nominated and accepts the Republican Vice-Presidential nomination for the 2028 US presidential election. The market resolves based on the first accepted nomination, regardless of any subsequent changes.
How it resolves
This market resolves Yes if Marco Rubio is the first individual formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts that nomination. This market resolves No if any other individual is the first to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts that nomination. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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