Will Glenn Youngkin be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
Current price
2¢
+0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2%
$894.8 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly specify that the outcome hinges on the first person to formally receive and accept the Republican vice-presidential nomination for the 2028 election cycle. The source relies on official party channels, specifically referencing the primary Republican National Committee website. Additionally, the rules explicitly clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not retroactively alter the initial resolution, leaving very little room for ambiguity or unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Glenn Youngkin will be the 2028 Republican nominee for Vice President of the United States. Resolution depends strictly on the first person formally nominated who accepts the nomination, regardless of any subsequent nominee replacements before election day.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Glenn Youngkin is the first individual formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if another individual is the first formally nominated candidate to accept, or if Youngkin is not nominated. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official GOP sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official GOP sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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