Will J.D. Vance be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
Current price
5.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.5%
$4.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies on the formal nomination during the 2028 Republican National Convention cycle as documented by official party sources, specifically pointing to the GOP website. Resolution depends strictly on the first individual to formally receive and accept the vice-presidential nomination, and the rules clearly state that any subsequent nominee replacement prior to election day will not retroactively alter the outcome. Because formal party nominations are officially recorded and universally recognized institutional proceedings, there is minimal room for interpretive dispute.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether J.D. Vance will be the first person to accept the Republican Party's formal nomination for Vice President in the 2028 presidential election cycle. Notably, any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not alter the outcome.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if J.D. Vance is the first individual formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The market resolves to No if another individual is the first to receive and accept this formal nomination. Any replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not change the outcome once determined. The outcome is decided using a consensus of official GOP sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official GOP sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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