Will Mike Pence be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
Last captured price
0.6¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.6%
$694.1 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on the first individual who formally accepts the Republican Party's vice-presidential nomination for the 2028 election cycle. Official party documentation and gop.com serve as the verification source. The rules explicitly note that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not alter the initial resolution, leaving minimal room for unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market tracks whether Mike Pence becomes the Republican Party's vice-presidential nominee for the 2028 presidential election cycle. Resolution is fixed to the first person who is formally nominated and accepts, regardless of subsequent replacements.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Mike Pence is the first individual to be formally nominated for Vice President of the United States by the Republican Party in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if another individual is the first to be formally nominated and accept. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not change the resolution. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of official GOP sources, including the official GOP website.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official GOP sources, including the official GOP website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.