Will Elon Musk be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
Current price
0.8¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.8%
$640.7 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves based on the first person formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President in the 2028 election cycle who accepts the nomination. Resolution relies on a consensus of official GOP sources, specifically including the party's official website. A clear rule specifies that subsequent replacements after the initial formal nomination and acceptance will not alter the market resolution, reducing potential post-convention confusion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Elon Musk will be the Republican Party's vice-presidential nominee for the 2028 U.S. presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Elon Musk is the first individual formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if another individual is the first to be formally nominated and accept the nomination. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day does not change the resolution. The outcome is decided by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official GOP sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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