Will Elise Stefanik be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
Last captured price
1.4¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.4%
$835.3 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies on formal nomination and acceptance by the Republican Party during the 2028 election cycle, verified through official party channels such as the national party website. The rules clearly state that the first individual to be formally nominated and accept decides the market, meaning any subsequent candidate replacements before election day will not affect the outcome. Because the event is tied to an official party process rather than subjective press reporting, the resolution mechanics are straightforward.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Elise Stefanik is formally nominated as the Republican Vice-Presidential candidate for the 2028 US presidential election and accepts the nomination. The market resolves based on the first accepted nomination, regardless of any subsequent changes.
How it resolves
This market resolves Yes if Elise Stefanik is the first individual formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts that nomination. This market resolves No if any other individual is the first to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts that nomination. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of official GOP sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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