Will Byron Donalds be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
Current price
0.65¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.65%
$1.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves based on the first individual formally nominated for Vice President by the Republican Party for the 2028 cycle who accepts the nomination. The criteria are standard and straightforward for a major political convention outcome. The resolution source relies on official party communications and records, which provide a clear public record of who receives and accepts the formal nomination. An explicit clause notes that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the resolution, ensuring the market strictly tracks the initial formal nomination.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Byron Donalds will become the Republican nominee for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 election cycle. Unusually, resolution is locked to the first nominee who accepts, meaning any subsequent replacement prior to election day is disregarded.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Byron Donalds is the first person to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves to No if any other person is the first formally nominated candidate who accepts the nomination. Any subsequent replacement of the vice-presidential nominee prior to election day is disregarded and will not alter the resolution. A consensus of official GOP sources decides the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official GOP sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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