Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
Current price
1¢
−0.25¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1%
$1.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the first individual who formally receives and accepts the Republican nomination for Vice President in the 2028 presidential election cycle, verified through official party sources including the official GOP website. The nomination process is a formal, highly publicized political event with definitive official records, leaving minimal room for ambiguity or subjective judgment. Position holders should simply note the explicit rule stating that resolution locks once the initial nominee formally accepts, so any replacement made before election day will not retroactively alter the outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will become the Republican vice-presidential nominee for the 2028 presidential election. Resolution is tied specifically to the first person formally nominated who accepts, so any later replacement before election day is disregarded.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if another individual becomes the first formally nominated candidate to accept, or if Kennedy does not receive and accept the nomination. Any replacement of the nominee prior to election day does not alter the resolution. The outcome is decided by a consensus of official GOP sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official GOP sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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