Will Greg Abbott be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
Last captured price
6.05¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.05%
$1.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the first individual formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President in 2028 who accepts the nomination. Official party sources such as the Republican National Committee website govern resolution, leaving minimal discretion. A standard clause clarifies that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not affect the outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Greg Abbott becomes the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee. Resolution depends entirely on the first person to receive and accept the nomination, ignoring any subsequent replacements before election day.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Greg Abbott is the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if another individual is the first to be formally nominated and accepts the nomination. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution. The outcome is determined by a consensus of official GOP sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official GOP sources, including the official GOP website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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