Will Donald Trump Jr. be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
Last captured price
2.8¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.8%
$1.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the first individual to be formally nominated for Vice President by the Republican Party in the 2028 cycle and accept the nomination. The designated resolution basis relies on official party sources, including the official GOP website, leaving minimal room for ambiguity or subjective interpretation. A standard clause clarifies that any subsequent replacement after the initial formal nomination will not alter the outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market resolves on whether Donald Trump Jr. is the first person formally nominated and accepting the Republican Party's Vice-Presidential nomination for the 2028 US presidential election. The market's resolution is unusual because it focuses on the initial nominee, disregarding any subsequent replacements.
How it resolves
This market resolves Yes if Donald Trump Jr. is the first individual formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts that nomination. This market resolves No if any other individual is the first to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts that nomination. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the market's resolution. A consensus of official GOP sources, including gop.com, will decide the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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