Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules provide precise, objective criteria based strictly on 1-minute candle high prices for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance. The time window is clearly defined with specific start and end timestamps in Eastern Time, and the market resolves immediately to Yes if the target threshold is met within that window or to No after the final deadline. Market participants should note that only the specified Binance BTC/USDT pair is tracked, meaning price action on other exchanges or different currency pairs will not count.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a price of $1,000,000 before the end of 2026. Unusually, resolution relies strictly on 1-minute candle data from Binance's BTC/USDT pair starting from November 24, 2025, excluding all other exchanges and pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT between November 24, 2025, 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET records a final High price of $1,000,000 or greater. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches this threshold by the end of the specified window. Prices from other exchanges, spot markets, or alternative trading pairs are disregarded. Resolution is determined solely by Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT chart price data.
Key dates
- Start of observation window: — Candle tracking begins at 14:00 ET.
- End of observation window: — Candle tracking closes at 23:59 ET.
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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