Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
0.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$1.7M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules are clearly defined with an objective resolution metric and source. Resolution relies strictly on 1-minute candle high prices for the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance during the specified timeframe. If any candle hits or exceeds $500,000, the market resolves to Yes immediately; otherwise, it resolves to No after the final deadline. Position holders only need to note that prices from other exchanges or trading pairs are entirely excluded from consideration.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a price of $500,000 by December 31, 2026. Resolution is tied strictly to 1-minute candle High prices for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance within a specific observation window starting November 24, 2025.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair between November 24, 2025, 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET shows a final High price equal to or greater than $500,000. The market resolves to No if no eligible 1-minute candle reaches this threshold during the specified timeframe. Resolution is determined solely by Binance 1-minute candle data for BTC/USDT. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets are excluded.
Key dates
- Observation window starts: — Start of 1-minute candle price monitoring at 14:00 ET.
- Observation window ends: — End of 1-minute candle price monitoring at 23:59 ET.
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart High prices
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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