Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
0.45¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.45%
$847.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market rules clearly specify the conditions for resolution. The outcome relies entirely on a single named exchange feed, specifically the 1-minute candle Low prices for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance. The timeframe is precisely defined with start and end timestamps in Eastern Time, and early resolution is triggered if the target price is touched at any point during that period. No decider discretion or competing data sources are involved.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) reaches a price of $5,000 or lower on Binance before the end of 2026. Resolution is strictly tied to 1-minute candle data from Binance's specific BTC/USDT pair, excluding all other exchanges and trading pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) has a final Low price equal to or lower than $5,000 between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. Resolution to Yes occurs immediately upon meeting this criterion. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The outcome is decided solely by the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart, and prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets do not count.
Key dates
- Monitoring start: — 14:00 ET
- Monitoring end: — 23:59 ET
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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