Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
0.45¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.45%
$912.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules are straightforward and objective. Resolution relies entirely on a single specified data source: the one-minute candle low prices for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance across an explicit timeframe. The market resolves immediately to Yes if the price threshold is reached at any point during that window, and otherwise resolves to No after the final deadline. The only structural detail to note is that price action on other exchanges or other currency pairs has no bearing on the outcome, meaning a flash dip localized solely to Binance BTC/USDT would trigger a Yes resolution, while a dip occurring exclusively on other platforms would not.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches $10,000 or lower by December 31, 2026. Resolution depends exclusively on one-minute candle data from Binance's BTC/USDT pair, disregarding all other exchanges and trading pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair has a final Low price equal to or lower than $10,000 between November 24, 2025, 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET. The market resolves to No if no qualifying 1-minute candle touches or dips below $10,000 during this window. Resolution is determined solely by Binance 1-minute candle data for BTC/USDT, and prices from other exchanges, spot markets, or different trading pairs are not considered.
Key dates
- Monitoring begins: — Window starts at 14:00 ET.
- Monitoring ends: — Window closes at 23:59 ET.
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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