Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
1.05¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.05%
$643.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear, objective, and deterministic resolution criteria. Outcome determination relies entirely on a specified single source and trading pair (Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data). The price threshold ($20,000), qualifying metric (final candle Low), and precise timeframe with explicit timezone (November 24, 2025, 14:00 to December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET) are strictly defined, alongside an explicit early resolution provision if the price target is touched during the window.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) falls to $20,000 or lower on Binance during the specified observation period.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance one-minute candle for BTC/USDT records a final Low price of $20,000 or lower between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. The market resolves to No if no one-minute candle meets or falls below this price threshold during the specified period. Resolution is determined strictly by price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair, disregarding data from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets.
Key dates
- Observation period begins: — Start of tracking for Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT candles in ET.
- Observation period ends: — Market resolves to No if the price threshold has not been reached by this time in ET.
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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