Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
7 live outcomes · highest priced: Howard Lutnick at 41% (+10 pts in 24h) · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $1.8M total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether specified members of the Trump administration will depart their roles before 2027. Each market measures whether a particular individual is announced to leave or ceases to be a member of the administration by the specified deadline.
How the outcomes relate
The event contains individual binary markets for different Trump administration officials. More than one market can resolve Yes, as multiple individuals could leave the administration before the deadline, and each person's departure is evaluated independently.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if it is announced that the listed individual will leave the Trump administration, or if they otherwise cease to be a member of the administration by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of resignation or removal prior to the deadline immediately triggers a Yes resolution, regardless of when the departure takes effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to federal roles publicly announced via official government channels.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the Trump administration, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howard Lutnick | 41% | ▲ 10 | Med | Med | |
| Pete Hegseth | 17% | ▲ 1 | Med | High | |
| Kash Patel | 11% | ▼ 2 | Med | Med | |
| Marco Rubio | 7% | ▼ 2 | Med | Med | |
| Scott Bessent | 5% | ▼ 1 | Med | Med | |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 4% | ▼ 1 | Med | Med | |
| Stephen Miller | 4% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Kristi Noem | 17% | ▲ 1 | Med | Low | |
| David Sacks | 14% | ▼ 3 | Med | Low | |
| Lee Zeldin | 7% | ▼ 1 | Med | Med | |
| Dan Scavino | 6% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Markwayne Mullin | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Susie Wiles | — | — | Low | Med | Resolved |
| Russell Vought | — | — | Not rated | Low | |
| Tom Homan | — | — | Not rated | Low | |
| John Ratcliffe | — | — | Not rated | Low |