Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market clearly defines what constitutes membership in the administration and provides a fixed deadline of December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
This market clearly defines what constitutes membership in the administration and provides a fixed deadline of December 31, 2026. A key operational rule to note is that an official announcement of a departure or resignation will cause an immediate early resolution to Yes, even if the actual departure date falls after the deadline. Resolution relies primarily on official administration statements, though the resolution criteria also permit relying on a consensus of reporting (likely a typo for 'reporting' written as 'reopening'), which introduces some decider latitude if official confirmation is ambiguous or delayed.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
7%
chance▼ −0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Lee Zeldin will leave or be announced to leave the Trump administration before 2027. It resolves to Yes immediately upon an announcement of his departure, even if the effective date of the resignation or removal is later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if it is announced that Lee Zeldin will leave the Trump Administration, or if he otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of his resignation or removal before the market end date triggers an immediate Yes resolution regardless of when it takes effect. The market resolves to No if he does not leave or receive such an announcement by the deadline. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles in the U.S. federal government. The primary resolution source is official information from the Trump administration, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source
Official information from the Trump administration, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·