Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market includes an important early resolution clause: an announcement made before December 31, 2026, that Kristi Noem will resign or be removed will immediately trigger a Yes resolution, even if the actual departure date is scheduled for after 2026.
Read the full assessment
The market includes an important early resolution clause: an announcement made before December 31, 2026, that Kristi Noem will resign or be removed will immediately trigger a Yes resolution, even if the actual departure date is scheduled for after 2026. This means an announced departure with an effective date in 2027 or later still resolves as Yes as long as the announcement itself occurs within the timeframe. For resolution sources, official administration statements are primary, but the decider may also rely on a consensus of reporting. The rules define administration membership clearly, and the end deadline is explicit.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
17%
chance▲ +0.85 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market explained
This market tracks whether Kristi Noem will leave or be announced to leave the Trump administration prior to the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if an announcement is made that Kristi Noem will leave the Trump administration, or if she otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of her resignation or removal prior to the end date triggers an immediate Yes resolution regardless of when it takes effect. The Trump administration covers formal appointments by Donald Trump to federal roles such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff announced via official government channels. The market resolves to No if she does not leave or receive an announcement of departure by the deadline. The resolution is decided using official information from the Trump administration, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the Trump administration, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·