Will Dan Scavino leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves to Yes immediately if an announcement is made that Dan Scavino will leave or resign, even if the actual departure date falls after the cutoff.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves to Yes immediately if an announcement is made that Dan Scavino will leave or resign, even if the actual departure date falls after the cutoff. Holders should be aware of this early-resolution trigger based purely on announcements. Additionally, while official administration announcements serve as the primary source, the rules allow fallback to a consensus of credible reporting (with a slight typo in the text referencing credible reopening), granting the resolver some discretion in evaluating news reports.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
6%
chance▼ −0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dan Scavino will leave Donald Trump's administration before 2027. Notably, an official announcement of his resignation or removal before the cutoff immediately triggers a Yes resolution, regardless of when the departure officially takes effect.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if it is announced that Dan Scavino will leave the Trump administration, or if he otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of his resignation or removal before the cutoff resolves the market to Yes immediately, regardless of when the departure takes effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to U.S. federal government roles publicly announced via official government channels. The market resolves to No if he does not leave or have his departure announced by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official information from the Trump administration, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the Trump administration, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·