Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves to Yes if Stephen Miller is announced to leave or ceases to be a member of the administration before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves to Yes if Stephen Miller is announced to leave or ceases to be a member of the administration before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An explicit early resolution clause ensures that an announcement of resignation or removal immediately triggers a Yes resolution, even if the departure takes effect at a later date. The rules define the administration via formal appointments or publicly announced roles, relying primarily on official government announcements while allowing a consensus of credible reporting (noting a minor typo in the text referencing credible reopening) as a backup.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
4%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market explained
This market tracks whether Stephen Miller departs or is announced to depart from the Trump administration prior to 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if an announcement is made that Stephen Miller will leave the Trump administration, or if he otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of resignation or removal before the market end date triggers an immediate Yes resolution, regardless of when the departure takes effect. The market resolves to No if he does not leave or get announced to leave by the deadline. The Trump administration covers individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles in the U.S. federal government. Resolution is decided primarily by official information from the Trump administration, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the Trump administration, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·