Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves to Yes if an announcement of departure is made before December 31, 2026, resolving immediately even if the actual departure date falls after the deadline.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves to Yes if an announcement of departure is made before December 31, 2026, resolving immediately even if the actual departure date falls after the deadline. Official government statements are the primary source, though deciders may rely on a consensus of reporting as an alternative. A key factor to watch is the definition of the administration, which requires formal appointment to federal roles announced through official channels.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
4%
chance▼ −1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ceases to be a member of the Trump administration or has his departure announced prior to 2027. Notably, an announcement of resignation or removal triggers immediate resolution even if the effective departure date is later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if it is announced that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will leave the Trump administration, or if he otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of resignation or removal before the deadline resolves the market to Yes immediately, regardless of when it takes effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to federal roles publicly announced via official government channels. The market resolves to No if these departure conditions are not met by the deadline. Official information from the Trump administration serves as the primary resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source
Official information from the Trump administration, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·