Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves to Yes if an announcement of resignation or removal occurs before the December 31, 2026 deadline, triggering early resolution regardless of when the departure actually takes effect.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves to Yes if an announcement of resignation or removal occurs before the December 31, 2026 deadline, triggering early resolution regardless of when the departure actually takes effect. The criteria clearly define what constitutes the administration, though resolution relies primarily on official announcements alongside a consensus of reporting (typographical error in the rules reads 'credible reopening'). Participants should note that merely announcing a future departure immediately locks in a Yes outcome, even if the person remains in office past the deadline.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
11%
chance▼ −1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kash Patel departs or is announced to depart the Trump administration before 2027. Notably, an announcement of resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution regardless of when it formally takes effect.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if it is announced that Kash Patel will leave the Trump administration, or if he otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of resignation or removal before the market end date resolves the market to Yes immediately, regardless of its effective date. The market resolves to No if he does not leave or get announced to leave by that deadline. The administration includes roles formally appointed by Donald Trump and publicly announced via official government channels. Resolution is decided using official information from the Trump administration or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the Trump administration, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·