Which company has the best AI model end of November?
21 live outcomes · highest priced: Google at 88% (+8 pts in 24h) · first close Dec 1, 2026 · $1.4M total volume
About this event
This event tracks which company will own the top-ranked AI model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of November 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific company potentially holding first place.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of mutually exclusive company propositions. Because resolution determines a single first-place company using clear tiebreaker rules, at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves Yes if the named company owns the model occupying first place on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard under specific settings (style control off, filtered for Models) at check time. Models marked 'AutoEval' are excluded. If models tie on rank, unrounded Arena score is used, followed by alphabetical order of company names. A market resolves No if another company takes first place. If the source is offline, resolution pauses until it returns; if permanently unavailable, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Key dates
- Check time: — November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | ▲ 8 | Low | Med | ||
| Anthropic | 12% | ▼ 8 | Low | Med | |
| OpenAI | 1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Meta | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Alibaba | <1% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Moonshot | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Baidu | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Z.ai | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Xiaomi | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| SpaceXAI | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| DeepSeek | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Amazon | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| ByteDance | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Nvidia | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Thinky | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| MiniMax | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Mistral | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Meituan | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Tencent | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| StepFun | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Microsoft | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low |