Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify a single, objective resolution source and URL, including exact leaderboard filters, adjustment settings, and check timing.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify a single, objective resolution source and URL, including exact leaderboard filters, adjustment settings, and check timing. Tie-breaking procedures are strictly defined down to unrounded scores and alphabetical company name ordering. Specific exclusions, such as models tagged with AutoEval and contingency plans if the site is temporarily or permanently offline, are thoroughly detailed, leaving virtually no room for subjective interpretation.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market explained
This market measures whether Z.ai owns the top-ranked model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of November 2026. Models marked AutoEval are excluded from consideration.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Z.ai owns the model holding first place on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the check time. It resolves to No if another company holds first place. Models marked AutoEval are disregarded entirely. Models are ranked primarily by leaderboard rank, then by unrounded Arena score, and finally by alphabetical order of the company name. The market resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. The market is determined based on the arena.ai leaderboard check on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, or the first check after it returns online if temporarily unavailable.
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·