Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules are clearly specified and rely on an objective, named source with an exact URL, specific view settings, and a precise timestamp of November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
The rules are clearly specified and rely on an objective, named source with an exact URL, specific view settings, and a precise timestamp of November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The decider has virtually no discretion because the resolution directly mirrors the leaderboard ranking. Specific filters are mandated, including the exclusion of AutoEval models and style adjustments set to none. Granular tie-breaking mechanisms are clearly detailed, proceeding from rank to unrounded arena score, and ultimately to alphabetical order of company names. Explicit fallback provisions handle leaderboard downtime and permanent unavailability without ambiguity.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market explained
This market measures whether Meta owns the highest-ranking AI model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of November 2026. Resolution relies on specific leaderboard settings and excludes models marked AutoEval.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Meta is the company that occupies first place on the specified leaderboard at the check time. It resolves to No if another eligible company occupies first place. It resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. Models marked AutoEval are disregarded regardless of rank or score. Ties are broken first by unrounded Arena score, then by alphabetical order of company names. If the site is down at the check time, resolution waits until it comes back online. The designated deciding source is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard.
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·