Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide explicit, deterministic criteria for resolution.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide explicit, deterministic criteria for resolution. The outcome is tied directly to a specific URL on arena.ai checked at a precise timestamp (November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET) with defined UI filters (style control off, filtered for models). The exclusions (AutoEval models excluded), multi-step tiebreaker mechanics (granular scores, then alphabetical order by company name), and fallback procedures for site outages are clearly detailed, leaving minimal ambiguity or decider discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market explained
This market measures whether MiniMax owns the top-ranked model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard on November 30, 2026. Models marked "AutoEval" are excluded from consideration.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if MiniMax occupies first place on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the check time. Models marked "AutoEval" do not count. The market resolves to No if another company occupies first place. Ties are broken first by unrounded Arena score, then by alphabetical order of company names. The market resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. Resolution is decided by checking the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard with style control set to None and filtered for Models. If the source is offline at the scheduled time, the market stays open until it comes back online.
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·