Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide a precise, objective standard for resolving the market.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide a precise, objective standard for resolving the market. Resolution relies on a named URL (arena.ai) inspected at a specified date and time (November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET) under specific filter settings (style control off, filtered for models). The criteria explicitly exclude models tagged 'AutoEval' and lay out unambiguous tiebreakers, starting with unrounded arena scores and ending with alphabetical sorting. Clear backup rules handle site downtime or permanent unavailability.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market explained
This market measures whether DeepSeek owns the highest-ranking AI model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of November 2026. Resolution relies on specific leaderboard settings and tiebreakers, while excluding models marked AutoEval.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if DeepSeek owns the model in first place on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the check time. It resolves to No if another company occupies first place. It resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. Models marked AutoEval are excluded. Rankings are determined by leaderboard rank, then exact Arena score, and finally alphabetical order of company names. If the site is down at check time, resolution waits until it is back online. The designated resolution source is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall).
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·