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Tech & ScienceCloses · in 17 days$280K volumePart of: Which company has the best AI model end of November? →

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules provide precise and objective resolution mechanics.

Read the full assessment

The rules provide precise and objective resolution mechanics. The source is a specific URL leaderboard (arena.ai Text Arena Overall), with exact filter settings defined (Adjustments: None, filtered for Models) and a fixed check time of November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Specific exclusions (models marked AutoEval) and multi-step tiebreakers (raw arena scores, followed by alphabetical order of company names) are clearly established. Clear contingency instructions are also provided if the leaderboard is temporarily or permanently offline.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

86%

chance

▲ +7.5 pts · 24h

Yes86¢
No14¢
Google · Yes · 1MO 67.5 H 86.0 L 66.5 C 86.0+18.5 (+27.4%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +12 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 19:10 UTC

The market price rose from 69% to 82%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.

  • Largest hourly change: 19:00 UTC, 48% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 19 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: Anthropic (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for tech & science markets yet.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 19:20 UTC

Earlier

▲ +11 pts · 10 Nov 2026, 19:10 UTCThe price rose from 67% to 78% as related outcomes repriced together, with the Anthropic outcome also moving up across the event.Price facts only. News isn't searched for tech & science markets yet.AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 19:20 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Market explained

This market measures whether Google owns the top-ranked AI model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of November 2026. Resolution relies on a strict snapshot with specific filtering and tiebreaking rules.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Google owns the model occupying first place on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at check time. It resolves to No if a model owned by another company occupies first place. It resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. Resolution uses the Rank column with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for Models, checked on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Models marked AutoEval are disregarded. Ties are broken first by unrounded Arena score, then by alphabetical order of company names. If the source is temporarily offline, the market remains open until the next check after it returns online.

Resolution source

arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·