Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules establish an explicit, objective benchmark by specifying the exact URL, leaderboard tab, filter settings, and timestamp for evaluation.
Read the full assessment
The rules establish an explicit, objective benchmark by specifying the exact URL, leaderboard tab, filter settings, and timestamp for evaluation. Ties are handled sequentially by unrounded arena score and an alphabetical tiebreaker, and excluded categories such as AutoEval models are explicitly defined. A fallback provision is also included in the event the source website is temporarily or permanently offline.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market explained
This market measures whether Moonshot owns the top-ranked AI model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of November 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Moonshot owns the model occupying first place on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the check time, using style control set to None and filtered for Models, while excluding any models marked AutoEval. Tied ranks are broken first by underlying Arena score and finally by alphabetical order of the company name. The market resolves to No if another eligible company holds first place under these criteria. The market resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. The primary check is conducted using the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard; if unavailable at the check time, the market stays open until the first check after it returns.
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·