What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
5 live outcomes · highest priced: ↑ 5.0% at 3% · first close Dec 31, 2026 · $1.9M total volume
About this event
This event tracks the target federal funds rate range established by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Markets measure whether the lower or upper bound of the target range hits specific interest rate thresholds before the end of 2026.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of a ladder of interest rate thresholds. Multiple markets can resolve Yes if the Federal Reserve's target range reaches levels that satisfy multiple threshold conditions during the timeframe.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if the target federal funds rate bound meets or exceeds the specified level at any point before the deadline. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside regular FOMC meetings are included. The market can resolve as soon as official data confirming the target level is published.
Key dates
- Evaluation deadline: — December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 5.0% | 3% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| ↓ 2.75% | 3% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| ↓ 2.25% | 2% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| ↓ 2.5% | 2% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| ↓ 1.75% | 1% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| ↑ 5.5% | — | — | Not rated | High | |
| ↑ 5.25% | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| ↑ 4.5% | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| ↑ 4.75% | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| ↑ 4.25% | — | — | Low | Low | |
| ↓ 2.0% | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| ↓ 1.0% | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| ↓ 1.25% | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| ↓ 1.5% | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| ↓ 0.75% | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| ↓ 0.5% | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| ↓ 0.25% | — | — | Not rated | High | |
| ↓ 0% | — | — | Not rated | High | |
| ↓ 3.0% | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| ↓ 3.25% | — | — | Not rated | Low |