Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?
Last captured price
2.65¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.65%
$20.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies on a specific, authoritative source: the official Federal Reserve website for FOMC rate decisions. The threshold and terms are clearly defined, including both scheduled and emergency rate decisions. Early resolution upon reaching the target rate is explicitly documented, and the ultimate deadline is unambiguous.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate upper or lower bound reaches 5.0% or higher before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the lower or upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 5.0% or higher at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Emergency rate hikes and cuts made outside regularly scheduled FOMC meetings count toward resolution. The market resolves to No if the rate bounds do not reach this level by the deadline. The market resolves as soon as qualifying data is published. The Federal Reserve's official website serves as the deciding source.
Key dates
- End date: — Latest date and time by which the target rate bound must reach the specified level.
Resolution source
The official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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