Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?
Current price
1.2¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.2%
$13.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market relies on a direct, named official source: the Federal Reserve website publishing target federal funds rate decisions. Resolution can occur early as soon as official data confirms the rate has reached 1.75% or lower, and emergency adjustments between scheduled FOMC meetings are explicitly included. The rule text uses standard template language referencing either the lower or upper bound, but the threshold condition is straightforward and leaves virtually no room for decider interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate range reaches 1.75% or lower before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if either the lower bound or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 1.75% or lower at any point by the deadline. Rate decisions made during scheduled FOMC meetings as well as emergency rate cuts or hikes outside regular meetings are considered. The market resolves to No if neither bound reaches 1.75% or lower by the deadline. The market may resolve as soon as qualifying data is published. The Federal Open Market Committee sets the target range, and the official website of the Federal Reserve decides resolution.
Key dates
- Cutoff deadline: — The rate must reach the specified level by this time.
Resolution source
Official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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