Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has clear and definitive resolution criteria tied directly to the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate. Resolution relies on an official Federal Reserve webpage, giving the decider no subjective discretion. The market resolves to Yes as soon as the upper or lower bound of the target range reaches 4.25% or higher prior to the December 31, 2026 deadline, including any emergency actions between FOMC meetings. Otherwise, it resolves to No at the expiration time.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate upper bound reaches 4.25% or higher before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the lower or upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level of 4.25% or higher at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Rate adjustments include emergency rate cuts and hikes outside regularly scheduled FOMC meetings, and the market may resolve immediately once qualifying data is published. The market resolves to No if the target rate does not reach this level within the designated timeframe. Resolution is determined using data published on the official Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The upper or lower bound must reach the specified level by this time.
Resolution source
The official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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