Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
Current price
1.65¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.65%
$226.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The title specifies the Fed's lower bound reaching 2.5% or lower, but the detailed rules state the market resolves to Yes if either the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level. Because the target federal funds rate is set as a range where the upper bound is typically 25 basis points higher than the lower bound, this discrepancy creates ambiguity: a target range of 2.50%–2.75% would trigger resolution under the text referring to the upper bound reaching 2.5%, even though the lower bound is 2.50% (and conversely, reaching 2.5% on the upper bound means the lower bound is already at 2.25%). Resolution relies on an official Federal Reserve link and includes explicit coverage for emergency rate actions.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate lower bound drops to 2.5% or lower before 2027. Notably, the market rules broadly state that either the lower or the upper bound reaching the specified target qualifies for resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the lower or upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% or lower at any point by December 31, 2026, at 12:59 PM ET. Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside regularly scheduled FOMC meetings are considered. The market resolves to No if the target level is not reached by this deadline. The resolution is determined by data published on the official website of the Federal Reserve, and the market may resolve immediately once relevant data is published.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Target level must be reached by 12:59 PM ET on this date
Resolution source
Federal Reserve official website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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