Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
Current price
2.6¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.6%
$370.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves using the official Federal Reserve website, leaving no room for subjective interpretation. The target threshold of 2.75% or lower is clearly defined, and the deadline of December 31, 2026, at 12:59 PM ET is exact. The rules explicitly accommodate early resolution upon publication as well as emergency rate moves outside scheduled meetings. Although the rule text references either the lower or upper bound hitting the target rather than strictly the lower bound specified in the question title, reaching a lower bound of 2.75% satisfies both conditions, creating negligible resolution conflict.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate lower bound drops to 2.75% or lower before 2027. Notably, the rules state resolution triggers if either the lower or upper bound reaches the specified level, and emergency rate changes outside regular FOMC meetings are included.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.75% or lower at any point by December 31, 2026, at 12:59 PM ET. Rate changes decided at regular FOMC meetings as well as emergency rate cuts or hikes outside scheduled meetings count toward resolution. The market resolves to No if neither bound reaches the specified level by that deadline. The market resolves immediately once relevant data showing the level has been reached is published. The official Federal Reserve website serves as the resolution source.
Key dates
- End date: — Deadline by which the target rate bound must reach the specified level.
Resolution source
The official website of the Federal Reserve
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