Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?
Current price
1.65¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.65%
$42.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market has clear conditions tied to an official authority, the Federal Reserve. Resolution depends on the target federal funds rate lower or upper bound reaching 2.25% or lower at any point prior to December 31, 2026, at 12:59 PM ET, verified directly via the Federal Reserve website. Emergency rate changes outside scheduled FOMC meetings are explicitly covered, and the market can resolve early as soon as qualifying data is officially published.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate range reaches 2.25% or lower before 2027. Note that while the question asks about the lower bound, the rules state it resolves based on either the lower or the upper bound reaching the specified level.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if either the lower bound or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range reaches 2.25% or lower at any point by December 31, 2026, at 12:59 PM ET. Both regularly scheduled FOMC decisions and emergency rate cuts or hikes outside scheduled meetings count toward resolution. The market resolves to No if neither bound reaches the specified level by that deadline. The market may resolve early as soon as qualifying data is published. Resolution is decided using data from the official website of the Federal Reserve.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Cutoff time for the target federal funds rate to reach 2.25% or lower
Resolution source
Official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.