Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
3.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.15%
$237.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the target condition, resolution timeline, and exact measurement metric. Resolution relies entirely on a single specified data source: the 1-minute candle 'Low' price for the SOL/USDT pair on Binance between November 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, ET. The market resolves immediately to Yes if the price touches or drops below $40 at any point during that window, or to No after the period ends if the threshold was never reached. Price activity on other exchanges or trading pairs is explicitly excluded.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Solana (SOL/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance SOL/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the price of Solana (SOL/USDT) drops to $40 or lower on Binance before the end of 2026. Resolution relies strictly on Binance 1-minute candle data, disregarding all other exchanges and trading pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for SOL/USDT between November 24, 2025, 14:30 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET records a final Low price of $40 or lower. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle meets or falls below this threshold during the observation window. Binance SOL/USDT 1-minute candle Low price data is the sole decider. Prices from other exchanges, spot markets, or different trading pairs do not count.
Key dates
- Observation window begins: — Start of 1-minute candle price monitoring in ET.
- Observation window ends: — Cutoff time for price threshold monitoring in ET.
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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