Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
14.5¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 14.5%
$992.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clearly defined and objective. The market relies on a specific single data point: the final high price of any one-minute ETH/USDT candle on Binance within a precisely stated time window and timezone. It resolves immediately to Yes if the $3,500 threshold is reached at any point during that period, and defaults to No after the deadline if the price target is never reached. Prices from other exchanges or trading pairs are explicitly excluded, leaving no room for decider interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ethereum reaches a price of $3,500 by December 31, 2026. Resolution depends exclusively on 1-minute candle high prices for the ETH/USDT trading pair on Binance.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for the ETH/USDT pair records a final High price equal to or greater than $3,500 between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. The market resolves to No if the price threshold is not reached during this evaluation window. Binance 1-minute chart data for the ETH/USDT pair is the sole deciding source. Prices from other trading pairs, spot markets, or alternative cryptocurrency exchanges are disregarded.
Key dates
- Tracking period begins: — Tracking starts at 14:00 ET
- Tracking period ends: — Tracking ends at 23:59 ET
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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