Will Ethereum dip to $700 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
1.35¢
−0.35¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.35%
$12.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide a clear, deterministic standard for resolution based exclusively on Binance ETH/USDT one-minute candle data. The target threshold of $700 or lower and the deadline of 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, are clearly defined with an exact URL reference for verification. Participants should note that only the specific Binance ETH/USDT pair on the 1-minute timeframe is evaluated, meaning wicks or lower prices on other exchanges, alternate trading pairs, or off-exchange spot feeds will not trigger a positive resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ethereum reaches a price of $700 or lower by December 31, 2026. Resolution is strictly tied to 1-minute candle Low prices of the ETH/USDT pair on Binance, excluding all other exchanges and trading pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for ETH/USDT has a final Low price equal to or lower than $700 between the market's creation and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle hits or drops below $700 by that deadline. Price action before market creation is disregarded. Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute chart data is the sole deciding source, and data from other exchanges, spot markets, or different trading pairs will not be considered.
Key dates
- Market End Date: — Observation window closes at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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