Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
1.4¢
−0.25¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.4%
$109.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define the conditions for a positive outcome, specifying the exact threshold, deadline, timezone, and data metric. Resolution relies strictly on a single, named public source using 1-minute ETH/USDT candles on Binance, leaving virtually no room for decider discretion or conflicting interpretations. Position holders only need to track Binance price action for the specified pair.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ethereum reaches a price of $500 or lower by December 31, 2026. Resolution is tied exclusively to 1-minute candle data on Binance for the ETH/USDT trading pair, disregarding all other exchanges and trading pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for the ETH/USDT pair has a final Low price equal to or lower than $500 between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Price action occurring prior to the market's creation is disregarded. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle meets or breaches this threshold by the cutoff time. Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle price data is the sole decider; prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets are not considered.
Key dates
- Market expiration: — The evaluation window closes at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle data
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