Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
6¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6%
$617.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on a clearly defined, objective metric using a single specified source. Resolution triggers immediately for Yes if any Binance one-minute candle for the ETH/USDT pair records a High price of $4,000 or greater between November 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, in Eastern Time. If that price threshold is not reached during the window, the market resolves to No. The rules explicitly restrict data to the Binance ETH/USDT pair, meaning price spikes on other exchanges or alternate trading pairs do not qualify. There is minimal ambiguity or room for decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the price of Ethereum reaches or exceeds $4,000 before the end of 2026, based strictly on 1-minute candle high prices for the ETH/USDT pair on Binance.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) on Binance has a final High price equal to or greater than $4,000 between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches this threshold during the specified window. Resolution is determined strictly by price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair; prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets are excluded.
Key dates
- Start Date: — Candle tracking window begins at 14:00 ET.
- End Date: — Candle tracking window ends at 23:59 ET.
Resolution source
Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle chart
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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