Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
4.2¢
−0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.2%
$588.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules provide clear, objective criteria with very little room for interpretation. The market resolves based exclusively on the one-minute candle high prices for the ETH/USDT trading pair on Binance within a specified timeframe. If a single candle reaches or exceeds $4,500, the market resolves immediately to Yes; if that threshold is never reached by December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET, it resolves to No. The single designated source and exact price metrics leave virtually no discretion to the decider.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ethereum reaches or exceeds $4,500 by December 31, 2026. Resolution is determined strictly by 1-minute candle high prices for the ETH/USDT pair on Binance.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for ETH/USDT records a final High price equal to or greater than $4,500 between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. The market resolves to No if the price does not reach this threshold during the specified timeframe. The resolution source is Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle data. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets do not count.
Key dates
- Observation window starts: — Binance 1-minute candle tracking begins at 14:00 ET.
- Observation window ends: — Binance 1-minute candle tracking concludes at 23:59 ET.
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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