Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027?
Last captured price
36¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 36%
$3.7K total volume · YES/NO
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Gotcha coverage has not been generated for this market.
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
Explainer coverage has not been generated for this market.
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.