Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before close
- 7 days before close
- 24 hours before close
- 1 hour before close
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The market includes an early-resolution clause triggering a 'Yes' outcome immediately upon an official announcement of resignation or removal, even if the actual departure is scheduled for a date after the September 30, 2026 cutoff. Determining resolution relies primarily on the German government, but the rules also permit resolution based on a broad consensus of media reports without naming specific outlets. If the individual never takes office during this period, the condition of ceasing to hold the office would not be met, resolving the market to 'No'.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Friedrich Merz ceases to serve as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026. A notable aspect is that an announcement of resignation or removal triggers immediate resolution even if the effective date is later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Friedrich Merz ceases to be Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market also resolves immediately to Yes if an announcement of his resignation or removal occurs before the end date, regardless of when it actually takes effect. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided by the government of Germany or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- End date: — Resolution deadline at 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
The government of Germany, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.