Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules establish a clear snapshot time defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after the token becomes publicly transferable and tradable.
Read the full assessment
The rules establish a clear snapshot time defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after the token becomes publicly transferable and tradable. However, the resolution source is vaguely specified as the most liquid price source available rather than naming a specific tracker or exchange, which requires subjective assessment to determine which venue qualifies as the most liquid. Additionally, while the formula for fully diluted valuation is standard, verifying the official total token supply depends on project disclosures at launch.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token exceeds $3 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after its token launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (total token supply multiplied by the token price) of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than $3 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the valuation does not exceed $3 billion at that time, or if Predict.fun does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source is the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·